Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
سلام دوستان
هواشناسی ژاپن در خصوص انسو آپدیت کرد.
چکیده مطلبش این هست که همونقدری که شانس بروز النینوی ضعیف در طول پاییز 2014 و زمستان 2015 وجود داره به همون نسبت هم احتمال تکرار مجدد فاز خنثی انسو همچون سال قبل وجود داره این یعنی همه چیز 50 پنجاه و لبه مرزی و بازهم پیش بینی های فصلی به چالش کشیده خواهد شد.
El Niño Outlook
( September 2014 - March 2015 )
Last Updated: 10 September 2014
ENSO neutral conditions continued in the equatorial Pacific.
The possibility of development of El Niño conditions during the northern hemisphere autumn and winter is comparable to that of continuation of ENSO neutral conditions.
[El Niño / La Niña]
In August 2014, the NINO.3 SST was near normal with a deviation of +0.3°C (Table and Fig.1). SSTs were above normal in the eastern and western parts of the equatorial Pacific (Fig.2 and Fig.4). Subsurface temperatures were below normal in the eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific, and above normal in the central part (Fig.3 and Fig.5). In the central equatorial Pacific, atmospheric convective activities were near normal and easterly winds in the lower troposphere were weaker than normal (Fig.5, Fig.6 and Fig.7). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that ENSO neutral conditions continued in the equatorial Pacific.
The subsurface cold waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific in August (Fig.3) tend to prevent SST from becoming above normal, while the eastward migration of warm waters in the central part is considered to increase SST anomalies in the eastern part again in the month ahead.
The JMA's El Niño prediction model predicts that the NINO.3 SST will be near normal or above normal during the northern hemisphere autumn and winter (Fig.9). In conclusion, the possibility of development of El Niño conditions during the northern hemisphere autumn and winter is comparable to that of continuation of ENSO neutral conditions.
[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]
The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in August (Fig.1). It is likely that the NINO.WEST SST will be near normal or below normal in the northern hemisphere autumn and winter (Fig.10).
The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in August (Fig.1). It is likely that the IOBW SST will be near normal in the northern hemisphere autumn and winter (Fig.11).
Produced by Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency
هواشناسی ژاپن در خصوص انسو آپدیت کرد.
چکیده مطلبش این هست که همونقدری که شانس بروز النینوی ضعیف در طول پاییز 2014 و زمستان 2015 وجود داره به همون نسبت هم احتمال تکرار مجدد فاز خنثی انسو همچون سال قبل وجود داره این یعنی همه چیز 50 پنجاه و لبه مرزی و بازهم پیش بینی های فصلی به چالش کشیده خواهد شد.
El Niño Outlook
( September 2014 - March 2015 )
Last Updated: 10 September 2014
ENSO neutral conditions continued in the equatorial Pacific.
The possibility of development of El Niño conditions during the northern hemisphere autumn and winter is comparable to that of continuation of ENSO neutral conditions.
[El Niño / La Niña]
In August 2014, the NINO.3 SST was near normal with a deviation of +0.3°C (Table and Fig.1). SSTs were above normal in the eastern and western parts of the equatorial Pacific (Fig.2 and Fig.4). Subsurface temperatures were below normal in the eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific, and above normal in the central part (Fig.3 and Fig.5). In the central equatorial Pacific, atmospheric convective activities were near normal and easterly winds in the lower troposphere were weaker than normal (Fig.5, Fig.6 and Fig.7). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that ENSO neutral conditions continued in the equatorial Pacific.
The subsurface cold waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific in August (Fig.3) tend to prevent SST from becoming above normal, while the eastward migration of warm waters in the central part is considered to increase SST anomalies in the eastern part again in the month ahead.
The JMA's El Niño prediction model predicts that the NINO.3 SST will be near normal or above normal during the northern hemisphere autumn and winter (Fig.9). In conclusion, the possibility of development of El Niño conditions during the northern hemisphere autumn and winter is comparable to that of continuation of ENSO neutral conditions.
[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]
The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in August (Fig.1). It is likely that the NINO.WEST SST will be near normal or below normal in the northern hemisphere autumn and winter (Fig.10).
The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in August (Fig.1). It is likely that the IOBW SST will be near normal in the northern hemisphere autumn and winter (Fig.11).
Produced by Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency
