مباحث عمومی هواشناسی
- شروع کننده موضوع Amir Mohsen
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
درود
سایت نروژ بارش تهران و بین 23 و 24 میلیمتر زده و کماکان برای تجریش 14 میلیمتر برف و برای مهراباد و مرکز شهر 2 میلیمتر برف زده
برف شمال تهران از سه شنبه شب و برف مهراباد آخرای بارش چهارشنبه هست
برف خالص 16 میلیمتری اراک در اپدیت دیشب ، به 8 میلیمتر برف خالص در اپدیت جدید تبدیل شده و 7 میلیمتری برفابه داره . کرج هم برفش 10 میلیمتر هست . برف همدان کماکان 5 میلیمتر از 15 میلیمتر بارش هست که نشان از نبود سرما در غرب و مرکز کشور است متاسفانه .
سرمای تهران هم تقریبا در همون حد قبلی است
برف منطقه پونک هم از 7 میلیمتر به 13 میلیمتر افزایش یافته
سایت نروژ بارش تهران و بین 23 و 24 میلیمتر زده و کماکان برای تجریش 14 میلیمتر برف و برای مهراباد و مرکز شهر 2 میلیمتر برف زده
برف شمال تهران از سه شنبه شب و برف مهراباد آخرای بارش چهارشنبه هست
برف خالص 16 میلیمتری اراک در اپدیت دیشب ، به 8 میلیمتر برف خالص در اپدیت جدید تبدیل شده و 7 میلیمتری برفابه داره . کرج هم برفش 10 میلیمتر هست . برف همدان کماکان 5 میلیمتر از 15 میلیمتر بارش هست که نشان از نبود سرما در غرب و مرکز کشور است متاسفانه .
سرمای تهران هم تقریبا در همون حد قبلی است
برف منطقه پونک هم از 7 میلیمتر به 13 میلیمتر افزایش یافته
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
درود مجدد خدمت دوستان عزیز
دوشنبه 4 دی1391 ساعت ۱۲:۴۵
انیمیشن بارش و فشار سطح دریا مدل اسمبل
۱۲ الی ۸۴ ساعت آینده:
۱۲ الی ۸۴ ساعت آینده:
نقشه های پیش یابی وتصاویرماهواره هواشناسی نشان می دهد طی امروز افزایش ابرناکی توام با وزش باد را درغالب نقاط استان خواهیم داشت همچنین احتمال بارش پراکنده در برخی نواحی مرتفع وجود دارد . اما از فردا ( سه شنبه) سامانه بارشی از سمت غرب به استان خراسان رضوی نفوذ کرده که باعث بارندگی بصورت برف و باران توام با وزش باد نسبتا شدید و کاهش دما خواهد گردید
درود مجدد خدمت دوستان عزیز
دوشنبه 4 دی1391 ساعت ۱۲:۴۵
انیمیشن بارش و فشار سطح دریا مدل اسمبل
۱۲ الی ۸۴ ساعت آینده:
درود بر امیر محسن عزیز خسته نباشید
به نظر با این نقشه باید برای 40 سانت برف خودمون رو آماده کنیم مگه نه؟
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
پیش بینی اکوریت ودر برای مشهد:
| Tue 12/25/2012 | 14° | -2° | 7 mm | 5.8 CM |
| 7° | -2° |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 12/26/2012 | -1° | -7° | 15 mm | 24.7 CM |
| 6° | -3° |
| Thu 12/27/2012 | -2° | -8° | 1 mm | 2 CM |
| 6° | -3° |
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
درود بر امیر محسن عزیز خسته نباشید
به نظر با این نقشه باید برای 40 سانت برف خودمون رو آماده کنیم مگه نه؟
سلام دوست خوبم
والا بستگی به نوع بارش برفش داره اگه برفش آبدار باشه ارتفاعش زیاد میشه ولی اگه برفش خشک باشه ارتفاعش سخت افزایش میکنه!!!!
حالا باید ببینیم خواست خدا چی میشه!
به نظر میاد که آبداره !!!
سایت نروژ برای آستارا هم برف نزده حتی !
34 میل برف برای ماسوله پیشبینی شده .
http://www.yr.no/place/Iran/Gilan/Massulya/long.html
34 میل برف برای ماسوله پیشبینی شده .
http://www.yr.no/place/Iran/Gilan/Massulya/long.html
شهر ایذه { خوزستان } 350 میلیمتر تا الان اومده 
معلومه که امسال بیشتر سامانه ها جنوب غربی { دریای سرخ } بوده و دریای مدیترانه خوابه! و گرنه شهری مثل مریوان در کردستان که آمار سالیانه اش 1000 میلیمتره از ایذه عقب نبود! 
تابلوی خوش آمد به شهر ایذه : به زادگاه کورش بزرگ خوش آمدید :9::20::28:
معلومه که امسال بیشتر سامانه ها جنوب غربی { دریای سرخ } بوده و دریای مدیترانه خوابه! و گرنه شهری مثل مریوان در کردستان که آمار سالیانه اش 1000 میلیمتره از ایذه عقب نبود! تابلوی خوش آمد به شهر ایذه : به زادگاه کورش بزرگ خوش آمدید :9::20::28:
سلام دوستان خدا رو صد هزاران بار شکر هر روز داره آبدیتا به نفع کشورمون و مخصوصا مشهد و شمال شرق آبدیت میشه و ان شا الله دیگه بارش برف تثبیت شده فقط مونده میزان بارش که ان شا الله خوبه. البته نکته ای که تو آبدیتای اخیر هست اینه که بارش مشهد جلو افاده و ان شا الله سامانه فعالیت اصلی اش رو از ساعات ابتدایی چهارشنبه شروع میکنه.
برا ماهم اینجور زده
خرم آباد 4-
اشترانکوه 21-
الیگودرز 12-
ازنا 9-
نورآباد 12-
سفید کوه 16-
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
اوه اوه
خدا به مردم شهر سرخس و روستاهاش رحم کنه و خدا کنه تلفاتی نداشته باشند چون دمای هوا تا 22- زیر صفر هم خواهد رسید و دمای هوا تا حداقل دو ژانویه هم به بالای صفر نخواهد رسید:
خدا به مردم شهر سرخس و روستاهاش رحم کنه و خدا کنه تلفاتی نداشته باشند چون دمای هوا تا 22- زیر صفر هم خواهد رسید و دمای هوا تا حداقل دو ژانویه هم به بالای صفر نخواهد رسید:
| Date | Time | Forecast | Temp. | Precipitation | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday 25/12/2012 | 00:00–06:00 | 10° | 0 mm |
| |
| 06:00–12:00 | 8° | 0 mm |
| ||
| 12:00–18:00 | 13° | 0 mm |
| ||
| 18:00–00:00 | 6° | 0.4 mm |
| ||
| Wednesday 26/12/2012 | 00:00–06:00 | 1° | 1.8 mm |
| |
| 06:00–12:00 | -1° | 6.0 mm |
| ||
| 12:00–18:00 | -3° | 5.1 mm |
| ||
| 18:00–00:00 | -6° | 5.6 mm |
| ||
| Thursday 27/12/2012 | 21:00–03:00 | -8° | 2.9 mm |
| |
| 03:00–09:00 | -8° | 1.0 mm |
| ||
| 09:00–15:00 | -9° | 0.2 mm |
| ||
| 15:00–21:00 | -9° | 0 mm |
| ||
| Friday 28/12/2012 | 21:00–03:00 | -15° | 0 mm |
| |
| 03:00–09:00 | -18° | 0 mm |
| ||
| 09:00–15:00 | -15° | 0 mm |
| ||
| 15:00–21:00 | -13° | 0 mm |
| ||
| Saturday 29/12/2012 | 21:00–03:00 | -19° | 0 mm |
| |
| 03:00–09:00 | -22° | 0 mm |
| ||
| 09:00–15:00 | -17° | 0 mm |
| ||
| 15:00–21:00 | -10° | 0 mm |
| ||
| Sunday 30/12/2012 | 21:00–03:00 | -15° | 0 mm |
| |
| 03:00–09:00 | -13° | 0 mm |
| ||
| 09:00–15:00 | -2° | 0 mm |
| ||
| 15:00–21:00 | -6° | 0 mm |
| ||
| Monday 31/12/2012 | 21:00–03:00 | -11° | 0 mm |
| |
| 03:00–09:00 | -6° | 0 mm |
| ||
| 09:00–15:00 | -4° | 0 mm |
| ||
| 15:00–21:00 | -1° | 0 mm |
| ||
| Tuesday 01/01/2013 | 21:00–03:00 | -9° | 0 mm |
| |
| 03:00–09:00 | -13° | 0 mm |
| ||
| 09:00–15:00 | -9° | 0 mm |
| ||
| 15:00–21:00 | -5° | 0 mm |
| ||
| Wednesday 02/01/2013 | 21:00–03:00 | -11° | 0 mm |
| |
| 03:00–09:00 | -12° | 0 mm |
| ||
| 09:00–15:00 | -6° | 0 mm |
| ||
| 15:00–21:00 | -3° | 0 mm |
| ||
| Thursday 03/01/2013 | 21:00–03:00 | -10° | 0 mm |
|
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
وضع تربت جام هم خیلی جالبه:
| Tuesday25 December | Wednesday26 December | Thursday27 December | Friday28 December | Saturday29 December | Sunday30 December | Monday31 December | Tuesday01 January | Wednesday02 January |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14° | -1° | -7° | -10° | -6° | -4° | -6° | -4° | 0° |
| 0.5 mm precipitation per 24 hours | 26 mm precipitation per 24 hours | 3.8 mm precipitation per 24 hours | 0 mm precipitation per 24 hours | 0 mm precipitation per 24 hours | 0 mm precipitation per 24 hours | 0 mm precipitation per 24 hours | 0 mm precipitation per 24 hours | 0 mm precipitation per 24 hours |
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Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Soaring Temps in West Antarctica May Fuel Sea Level Rise
64
19
27
3
By Michael D. Lemonick
Follow @MLemonick
Temperatures in West Antarctica are have increased by 4.3°F over the past 50 years or so, according to a new paper released Sunday in Nature Geoscience. That increase is far more than scientists have thought, and nearly as much as the 5°F rise on the nearby Antarctic Peninsula, the fastest-warming region on Earth.
It’s a cause for serious concern, say the study’s authors: West Antarctica holds enough fresh water to raise sea level by 11 feet if all the ice melted, and even a fraction of that amount could prove catastrophic to coastal areas where hundreds of millions of people live.
Credit: University of Washington
In fact, the 8 inches or so of sea level rise the world has experienced since 1900 is already enough to have boosted the power of storm surges, put pressure on infrastructure in places like South Florida and exposed millions of Americans to the danger of coastal flooding. The 3 feet of additional rise expected by 2100 will make all of these problems vastly worse.
West Antarctica currently adds just a tenth of the current .18 inches of annual sea level rise scientists have measured. But, “if this trend continues, its contribution to sea level rise, could become significant. Not today or tomorrow, but a few decades in the future,” said lead author David Bromwich, of Ohio State University, in an interview.
The reason Bromwich and his colleagues set out to analyze West Antarctic temperature trends is that previous studies have disagreed about what’s happening in that part of the continent. That’s because there are fewer than 20 weather stations in all of Antarctica, whose vast land area equals that of the continental U.S. AND Mexico, so scientists have to make educated calculations about what’s happening in between.
That is less of a problem on bigger, colder East Antarctica, where even a significant temperature increase wouldn’t push the mercury above the freezing point. In the west, though, the ice is already somewhat unstable since much of it sits on land that’s below sea level.
Relatively warm ocean currents have already started eroding the ends of glaciers from below, allowing the ice to flow faster toward the sea. On the Antarctic Peninsula, meanwhile, ice shelves have abruptly collapsed, and in this case, much of the damage has come from meltwater on the surface. “Melting does bad things to ice shelves,” Bromwich said in an understatement.
What’s happening to temperatures in West Antarctica, therefore, could have a big effect on the ice, so Bromwich and his colleagues set out to do a new analysis. There is a weather station in that part of the continent, but temperatures haven’t been taken consistently since the station was established in the late 1950s.
To fill in the gaps, the scientists used a technique known as weather reanalysis, in which climate models predict what temperatures should have been in various places around the globe. Then the models are tested against what actual temperatures were, and refined.
The result is a set of temperature reconstructions that can fill in gaps in the actual record with relatively high accuracy. “It was a big detective undertaking. We think the errors are quite small,” Bromwich said.
The scientists found that winter and spring temperatures rose the most over the 50-year period they studied, but summer temperatures rose as well. Most of the time, they didn’t quite get above freezing, but Bromwich said, “we’ve seen some years when satellites have showed extensive melting” — something like the surface melting seen last summer in Greenland, where temperatures year-round have always been significantly higher than in West Antarctica.
“The point is that the closer you get to freezing, the more likely you are to cross that threshold,” Bromwich said.
And while Bromwich noted that “the Arctic has gotten a lot of attention this year,” in coming years, the world’s attention may be focused on the opposite end of the globe.
- Published: December 23rd, 2012
By Michael D. Lemonick
Follow @MLemonick
Temperatures in West Antarctica are have increased by 4.3°F over the past 50 years or so, according to a new paper released Sunday in Nature Geoscience. That increase is far more than scientists have thought, and nearly as much as the 5°F rise on the nearby Antarctic Peninsula, the fastest-warming region on Earth.
It’s a cause for serious concern, say the study’s authors: West Antarctica holds enough fresh water to raise sea level by 11 feet if all the ice melted, and even a fraction of that amount could prove catastrophic to coastal areas where hundreds of millions of people live.
Credit: University of Washington
In fact, the 8 inches or so of sea level rise the world has experienced since 1900 is already enough to have boosted the power of storm surges, put pressure on infrastructure in places like South Florida and exposed millions of Americans to the danger of coastal flooding. The 3 feet of additional rise expected by 2100 will make all of these problems vastly worse.
West Antarctica currently adds just a tenth of the current .18 inches of annual sea level rise scientists have measured. But, “if this trend continues, its contribution to sea level rise, could become significant. Not today or tomorrow, but a few decades in the future,” said lead author David Bromwich, of Ohio State University, in an interview.
The reason Bromwich and his colleagues set out to analyze West Antarctic temperature trends is that previous studies have disagreed about what’s happening in that part of the continent. That’s because there are fewer than 20 weather stations in all of Antarctica, whose vast land area equals that of the continental U.S. AND Mexico, so scientists have to make educated calculations about what’s happening in between.
That is less of a problem on bigger, colder East Antarctica, where even a significant temperature increase wouldn’t push the mercury above the freezing point. In the west, though, the ice is already somewhat unstable since much of it sits on land that’s below sea level.
Relatively warm ocean currents have already started eroding the ends of glaciers from below, allowing the ice to flow faster toward the sea. On the Antarctic Peninsula, meanwhile, ice shelves have abruptly collapsed, and in this case, much of the damage has come from meltwater on the surface. “Melting does bad things to ice shelves,” Bromwich said in an understatement.
What’s happening to temperatures in West Antarctica, therefore, could have a big effect on the ice, so Bromwich and his colleagues set out to do a new analysis. There is a weather station in that part of the continent, but temperatures haven’t been taken consistently since the station was established in the late 1950s.
To fill in the gaps, the scientists used a technique known as weather reanalysis, in which climate models predict what temperatures should have been in various places around the globe. Then the models are tested against what actual temperatures were, and refined.
The result is a set of temperature reconstructions that can fill in gaps in the actual record with relatively high accuracy. “It was a big detective undertaking. We think the errors are quite small,” Bromwich said.
The scientists found that winter and spring temperatures rose the most over the 50-year period they studied, but summer temperatures rose as well. Most of the time, they didn’t quite get above freezing, but Bromwich said, “we’ve seen some years when satellites have showed extensive melting” — something like the surface melting seen last summer in Greenland, where temperatures year-round have always been significantly higher than in West Antarctica.
“The point is that the closer you get to freezing, the more likely you are to cross that threshold,” Bromwich said.
And while Bromwich noted that “the Arctic has gotten a lot of attention this year,” in coming years, the world’s attention may be focused on the opposite end of the globe.
- وضعیت