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- شروع کننده موضوع Amir Mohsen
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Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
"Remember that when forecasting for the winter, you can't just take one factor and run with it. You have to look at the whole pattern as a whole. However, let's consider the influences here of above normal sea surface temperature anomalies in NINO 4 alone. Why NINO 4? Because this is where the date line is located and when the SSTA are above normal in these locations that means air is rising. With air rising, this development of thunderstorms is more likely. The release of latent heat in these locations helps to enhance troughs around the date line which also happens to be just north of the Aleutian Islands, which in turns enhances the negative EPO pattern. This is why troughs are more likely when convection is firing over the date line and why 94% of winter storms develop 5 days ahead of when convection develops around the date line. The correlation is uncanny and proven by Kocin and Uccelien in Northeast Snow Storms (a must read for any weather enthusiast or meteorologist).
So this factor, IF correct, would certainly suggest the potential for a rather interesting late Fall and Winter. However, as always we have to wait and see how this pattern evolves over the coming weeks and months."
So this factor, IF correct, would certainly suggest the potential for a rather interesting late Fall and Winter. However, as always we have to wait and see how this pattern evolves over the coming weeks and months."
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
I pulled up the winter of 2008-2009, it looks like that winter could be an analog year. It has similar ENSO, AMO, PDO and QBO conditions compared to what we are seeing now. At the same time, I'm debating tossing 1951-1952 out because it was a weak/moderate El Nino that winter.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
1956-1957, 1961-1962, 1967-1968, 1973-1974, 1980-1981, 1981-1982, 1985-1986, 1995-1996, 1996-1997, 2001-2002, 2002-2003, 2003-2004, 2006-2007 I see even though El Nino not that I think El Nino for this Winter I see Neutral
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reply:
Nice set, but Id scratch a few of those off and here is why:
1956-1957 : Coming straight out of a 3 year sustained and strong La Nina, we've had a neutral year between the most recent La Nina and this year
1973-1974: We are almost certainly not going into a strong La Nina, which 73-74 was the strongest in the past 60 years
1995-1996: We are very likely not going into a moderate La Nina, plus that came off the back of a moderate El Nino the year before
2002-2003: We are very likely not going into a moderate El Nino
2006-2007: See reason above for 2002-2003
Not trying to be critical at all... but based on solely ENSO alone, you can bump those off since they are far enough away, from what will likely be this winter's conditions, that they will skew a plot in one direction or another.
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reply:
Nice set, but Id scratch a few of those off and here is why:
1956-1957 : Coming straight out of a 3 year sustained and strong La Nina, we've had a neutral year between the most recent La Nina and this year
1973-1974: We are almost certainly not going into a strong La Nina, which 73-74 was the strongest in the past 60 years
1995-1996: We are very likely not going into a moderate La Nina, plus that came off the back of a moderate El Nino the year before
2002-2003: We are very likely not going into a moderate El Nino
2006-2007: See reason above for 2002-2003
Not trying to be critical at all... but based on solely ENSO alone, you can bump those off since they are far enough away, from what will likely be this winter's conditions, that they will skew a plot in one direction or another.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
One of the more common themes I'm getting from everyone's analog sets is high latitude blocking. Most of these sets go for ridging in the Bering Sea and Greenland, but just in general, high pressure is certainly present in all of these analogs. Temperature composites were not as in sync, but there are similarities in the mid level pattern. Thanks for everyone's input!
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reply:
Purely unintentional on my end. Assumptions are a -PDO, - neutral ENSO, low solar and a positive QBO.
ENSO appears to be a lock to be neutral but with the past three years being primarily Nina, treat it as one. Don't put much stock in someone calling for a "modoki nino".
The QBO will probably be positive all winter, despite some saying a flip is imminent. There doesn't look to be any descending negative anomalies (last time I looked).
Now for the wild cards: Solar is looking low regardless, despite being in a "max". This is supposed to be a two-tiered max, much like others and that appears to be so as sunspot activity has picked up in the southern hemisphere of the sun as the northern one wanes. Whatever the case, it should be done or almost done by the start of winter.
Finally, the NPAC looks to be on fire right now. I'm drooling just looking at it and desperately hoping for a positive PDO. Any signs of the GOA low would be bad.
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reply:
Purely unintentional on my end. Assumptions are a -PDO, - neutral ENSO, low solar and a positive QBO.
ENSO appears to be a lock to be neutral but with the past three years being primarily Nina, treat it as one. Don't put much stock in someone calling for a "modoki nino".
The QBO will probably be positive all winter, despite some saying a flip is imminent. There doesn't look to be any descending negative anomalies (last time I looked).
Now for the wild cards: Solar is looking low regardless, despite being in a "max". This is supposed to be a two-tiered max, much like others and that appears to be so as sunspot activity has picked up in the southern hemisphere of the sun as the northern one wanes. Whatever the case, it should be done or almost done by the start of winter.
Finally, the NPAC looks to be on fire right now. I'm drooling just looking at it and desperately hoping for a positive PDO. Any signs of the GOA low would be bad.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
بهروز عزیز
عکسها بینظرند و عجب طبیعت زیبایی دارید . باز هم از این عکسهای زیبا واسه ما بذارید لطفا
و عجب عکاس حرفه ای و ماهری هستید شما
ما سر تعظیم فرود میاریم در برابر شما
عکسها بینظرند و عجب طبیعت زیبایی دارید . باز هم از این عکسهای زیبا واسه ما بذارید لطفا
و عجب عکاس حرفه ای و ماهری هستید شما
ما سر تعظیم فرود میاریم در برابر شما
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
اوه اوه !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
عجب پرفشار سیبری در ماه دسامبر قراره تقویت بشه!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
عجب پرفشار سیبری در ماه دسامبر قراره تقویت بشه!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
مادرجاننننننننننننننننننننننننننننننننن
عجب فوریه ای!!!!!!!!!!!!!
عجب فوریه ای!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
ظاهرا در ماه ژانویه ما با پدیده بلاکینگ مواجه هستیم
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
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