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Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
یا علی !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
120 الی 180 ساعت آینده!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
120 الی 180 ساعت آینده!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
سلام
این سامانه که چند وقتی هست ذهن منو درگیر کرده و در اکثر آپدیتها هم بوده و از دیشب روند تقویتش در نقشه ها آغاز شده ، اگه همینطور این روند حفظ بشه ما در روزهای آینده شاهد بارش یک برف زیبا و بیاد ماندنی از نوع خشک و یخ زده با وزش باد شدید و و کولاک بیسابقه رو در مشهد تجربه خواهیم کرد به امید خدا
این سامانه که چند وقتی هست ذهن منو درگیر کرده و در اکثر آپدیتها هم بوده و از دیشب روند تقویتش در نقشه ها آغاز شده ، اگه همینطور این روند حفظ بشه ما در روزهای آینده شاهد بارش یک برف زیبا و بیاد ماندنی از نوع خشک و یخ زده با وزش باد شدید و و کولاک بیسابقه رو در مشهد تجربه خواهیم کرد به امید خدا
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
کانتر سطح زمین 516 دکامتر برای عرض جغرافیایی کشور ما شوخی نیست و کم رخ میده!!!!!
یخبندان بسیار شدیدی هم در پیش خواهد بود.
یخبندان بسیار شدیدی هم در پیش خواهد بود.
درود امیرمحسن عزیز
ما هم که در تهران مثل همیشه در غرب سیستم قرار گرفتیم و بجز سوز و سرما چیزی نسیبمون نمیشه!
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
درود امیرمحسن عزیز
ما هم که در تهران مثل همیشه در غرب سیستم قرار گرفتیم و بجز سوز و سرما چیزی نسیبمون نمیشه!
سلام آرش جان
انیمیشن بالا نشون میده که ناوه شمال شرقی بر خلاف سیستم های معمول که از غرب به شرق نفوذ میکنند این کاملا برعکس هست .
آرزو میکنم که در اپدیتهای بعدی حرکت بیشتری به سمت غرب داشته باشه و لااقل با رطوبت ارسالی از سوی خلیج همیشه پارس هم همراهی بشه که در سایر نقاط ایران هم به شکل فراگیر بارش برف داشته باشیم.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Polar vortex will be taking some hits in next few weeks as we see our first big stratospheric intrusion take place. Heart of said intrusion looks to occur in the upper stratosphere, with effects extending down to the 20-30mb region.
+QBO and suddenly record-low 100mb eddy flux values don't support a long-term polar vortex break-down, and while long range GFS is optimistic in terms of really hammering the vortex, we all know the caveats that come with such long range models, especially in the stratosphere where we don't have the luxury of certain sampling data, i.e. airplane OBS and surface station OBS.
That said, expect an attack on the vortex to commence in a good week's time, reaching its peak in the 10-15 days down the road. I anticipate a reorganization of the vortex in due time following said peak, with the aforementioned +QBO/record low 100mb flux.
Wouldn't be surprised to see the vortex have significantly more issues dealing with another intrusion of this magnitude a month or so down the road.
+QBO and suddenly record-low 100mb eddy flux values don't support a long-term polar vortex break-down, and while long range GFS is optimistic in terms of really hammering the vortex, we all know the caveats that come with such long range models, especially in the stratosphere where we don't have the luxury of certain sampling data, i.e. airplane OBS and surface station OBS.
That said, expect an attack on the vortex to commence in a good week's time, reaching its peak in the 10-15 days down the road. I anticipate a reorganization of the vortex in due time following said peak, with the aforementioned +QBO/record low 100mb flux.
Wouldn't be surprised to see the vortex have significantly more issues dealing with another intrusion of this magnitude a month or so down the road.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
| Here's the animation of strat warming at 30mb level, | |
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Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Posted 20 December 2013 - 07:57
POPULAR
Quick set of charts from the strat. interesting now to compare in real time the projected activity against the OPI wave prediction posted by Sebastaan a couple of pages ago. Beginning to think that the Italians using October data to predict the key planetary wave events impacting the vortex over winter really are onto something..
Asian Torque responsible for the uptick in MT activity.
30hPa & Vorticity at 240hrs
Wave 2 & Heat Flux
GFS Temps, important to cross check with what GFS is looking at compared to the ECM, as we have been here before with ECM.
EPS weekly - later into January.. - tells it's own story.
Lining up well for Feb, vortex is a heavyweight and this is akin to landing a lucky uppercut in Round 6. Still a few rounds of hits needed..
POPULAR
Quick set of charts from the strat. interesting now to compare in real time the projected activity against the OPI wave prediction posted by Sebastaan a couple of pages ago. Beginning to think that the Italians using October data to predict the key planetary wave events impacting the vortex over winter really are onto something..
Asian Torque responsible for the uptick in MT activity.
30hPa & Vorticity at 240hrs
Wave 2 & Heat Flux
GFS Temps, important to cross check with what GFS is looking at compared to the ECM, as we have been here before with ECM.
EPS weekly - later into January.. - tells it's own story.
Lining up well for Feb, vortex is a heavyweight and this is akin to landing a lucky uppercut in Round 6. Still a few rounds of hits needed..
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
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