مباحث عمومی هواشناسی

[heaven1]

اقا هادی یه سوال اگه نینو هم این طوری سقوط کنه چه پیامدی داره؟

به اینها نمیگن سقوط!!!
ولی با کاهش بیشتر و در واقع ورود به منطقه لانینا و همزمان ورود MJO به فاز 2 تمام ایران با کاهش ارتفاع در تراز 500 مواجه خواهد شد که پیامدش بارش های سراسری در کشور خواهد بود

 

[heaven1]

به اینها نمیگن سقوط!!!
ولی با کاهش بیشتر و در واقع ورود به منطقه لانینا و همزمان ورود MJO به فاز 2 تمام ایران با کاهش ارتفاع در تراز 500 مواجه خواهد شد که پیامدش بارش های سراسری در کشور خواهد بود

 

[Amir Mohsen]

سلام دوستان:گل:

Markus Hell / Tareom.com via AP Photo



7 days






Close Call: Boulder Narrowly Misses Farmhouse in Italy
A wake of destruction trails behind a huge boulder after it tore down the hillside, missing a house by less than a meter, and destroyed a barn before stopping in the vineyard. A second giant boulder, below, which detached during the same landslide on Jan. 21, stopped next to the house, in Ronchi di Termeno, in Northern Italy.

Markus Hell / AP
This boulder's path ended right next to the house. According to reports, the Trebo family living in the house was unharmed. As shocking as the event must have been for them, there was some forewarning. The giant boulder in the foreground of the picture below is from an earlier landslide, date unspecified.

Markus Hell / Tareom.com via AP
Editor's note: Images were shot on Jan. 23 and made availabe on Jan. 30.

First published January 30th 2014, 8:31 pm



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[heaven1]

سلام دوستان:گل:

Markus Hell / Tareom.com via AP Photo



7 days






Close Call: Boulder Narrowly Misses Farmhouse in Italy


A wake of destruction trails behind a huge boulder after it tore down the hillside, missing a house by less than a meter, and destroyed a barn before stopping in the vineyard. A second giant boulder, below, which detached during the same landslide on Jan. 21, stopped next to the house, in Ronchi di Termeno, in Northern Italy.

Markus Hell / AP
This boulder's path ended right next to the house. According to reports, the Trebo family living in the house was unharmed. As shocking as the event must have been for them, there was some forewarning. The giant boulder in the foreground of the picture below is from an earlier landslide, date unspecified.

Markus Hell / Tareom.com via AP
Editor's note: Images were shot on Jan. 23 and made availabe on Jan. 30.

First published January 30th 2014, 8:31 pm



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خوش اومدی دوست عزیز و خسته نباشی

 

[Amir Mohsen]

خوش اومدی دوست عزیز و خسته نباشی

سلام هادی جان


خیلی ممنونم. زنده باشید:گل:

 

[Amir Mohsen]

الان دیگه دلم نا بارون میخواد ، نه برف و نه سرما.

دلم یک همچین جایی میخواد و آرامش پیرامون این محیط رو!

 

[heaven1]

الان دیگه دلم نا بارون میخواد ، نه برف و نه سرما.

دلم یک همچین جایی میخواد و آرامش پیرامون این محیط رو!

مشاهده پیوست 52369

ای بابا امیر جان:توافق:

 

[Amir Mohsen]

 

[Amir Mohsen]

 

[Amir Mohsen]

 

[Amir Mohsen]

 

[yazd46]

http://irimo.ir//parameters/weather...6/1391679693914jba7s0p4q94qlittqqu9c0cmu3.pdf

آمار روزانه دما و بارش ایستگاه لاله زار از 1392/10/01 تا 1392/11/15 میخواستم؟ 45 روزه است مثلا
1392/10/1 c c mm
1392/10/2 c c mm
...
1392/11/15 c c mm
میخوام راهی دارین؟

 

[نيما]

سلام امير محسن عزيز
شرايط بارشي بسيار نا اميد كننده توشمال شرق مشهود ومشخصه ولي فكنه شرايط استان فارس وكرمان خيلي خوبه البته تركيه دو سومش وضعيت بارش منفي داره

 

[Amir Mohsen]

پیش بینی وضع هوای مشهد​

آنومالی بارش در اسفند 1392

تاریخ : پنجشنبه هفدهم بهمن 1392

نویسنده : امیر محسن

نظر بدهید

مطابق با آخرین نقشه های CFSV2 آنومالی بارش کشور در اسفند ماه 1392 مطابق با نقشه زیر میباشد.

مقایس این نقشه بر اساس آنومالی بارش به میلیمتر در روز میباشد.

در صورت وقوع هرگونه تغییرات در نقشه ها ، در آپدیتهای بعدی اطلاع رسانی لازم صورت خواهد پذیرفت.

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برچسب‌ها: وضعیت بارش در اسفند 1392, آنومالی بارش, پیش بینی بلندمدت بارش, پیش بینی فصلی

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[Amir Mohsen]

پیش بینی وضع هوای مشهد​

پدیده های برجسته آب و هوایی دسامبر 2013

تاریخ : جمعه هجدهم بهمن 1392

نویسنده : امیر محسن

نظر بدهید

پدیده های برجسته و رکورد های آب و هوایی دسامبر 2013



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برچسب‌ها: پدیده های آب و هوایی دسامبر 2013, اقلیم دنیا در دسامبر 2013

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[Amir Mohsen]

چشم انداز بارش فوریه-آپریل 2014

 

[Amir Mohsen]

 

[Amir Mohsen]

Synoptic Discussion - December 2013


[h=5]Atmospheric Drivers
Subtropical highs, and cold fronts and low pressure systems moving in the storm track flow, are influenced by the broadscale atmospheric circulation. The following describes several modes or patterns of the atmospheric circulation, their drivers, the temperature and precipitation patterns (or teleconnections) associated with them, and their index values this month:

• El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
  • Description: Oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean can influence weather across the globe. ENSO is characterized by two extreme modes: El Niño (warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature [SST] anomalies in the tropical Pacific) and La Niña (cooler-than-normal SST anomalies), with the absence of either of these modes termed "ENSO-neutral" conditions.
  • Status: Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation anomalies indicated that the equatorial Pacific continued in an ENSO-neutral state during December.
  • Teleconnections (influence on weather): To the extent teleconnections are known, while in a neutral state, ENSO normally is not a player in the month's weather. Historical data has been analyzed by NOAA to show typical temperature and precipitation patterns associated with El Niño and La Niña ENSO episodes. Teleconnections are not available for ENSO-neutral conditions at that NOAA web site.
• Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
  • Description: The MJO is a tropical disturbance or "wave" that propagates eastward around the global tropics with a cycle on the order of 30-60 days. It is characterized by regions of enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall. One of its indices is a phase diagram which illustrates the phase (1-8) and amplitude of the MJO on a daily basis. The MJO is categorized into eight "phases" depending on the pattern of the location and intensity of the regions of enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall. The MJO can enter periods of little or no activity, when it becomes neutral or incoherent and has little influence on the weather. Overall, the MJO tends to be most active during ENSO-neutral years, and is often absent during moderate-to-strong El Niño and La Niña episodes.
  • Status:The MJO began the month incoherent, transitioned weakly into phases 3 and 4 by mid-month, then spent the rest of the month incoherent or weakly near phases 5 and 6. When the MJO was incoherent, other modes of convective variability in the tropics, such as Kelvin and Rossby waves, exerted some influence (as indicated by the MJO discussions for December 9, 16, 23, 30).
  • Teleconnections (influence on weather): The MJO's temperature and precipitation teleconnections to U.S. weather depend on time of year and MJO phase. To the extent teleconnections are known, the November-January teleconnections for precipitation are shown here and for temperature are shown here.
  • Comparison to Observed: The MJO is transitory and can change phases (modes) within a month, so it is more closely related to weekly weather patterns than monthly. The December 2013 monthly temperature and precipitation anomaly patterns do not match the teleconnections for MJO phases 3-6, except for warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Southeast. On a weekly basis, the temperature anomaly pattern for the first two weeks of December is opposite that expected for phases 3 and 4, but there is some hint of agreement (warmer-than-normal temperatures) with phases 5 and 6 for parts of the country during the last two weeks (weeks 1, 2, 3, 4). The weekly precipitation anomaly patterns do not agree with the teleconnections expected for phases 3 and 4 during the first half of the month, but during the third week the wetter-than-normal strip from Arkansas to New England is consistent with the teleconnection pattern for phase 5 (weeks 1, 2, 3, 4).
• The Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern
  • Description: The PNA teleconnection pattern is associated with strong fluctuations in the strength and location of the East Asian jet stream. PNA-related blocking of the jet stream flow in the Pacific can affect weather downstream over North America, especially the West and especially in the winter half of the year.
  • Status: The daily PNA index was negative for the first half of the month and near zero (neutral) for the last half, averaging negative for the month as a whole.
  • Teleconnections (influence on weather): To the extent teleconnections are known, the temperature teleconnection map for a negative PNA at this time of year (January on the maps) shows below-normal temperatures along the West Coast, Alaska, western Canada, and Northern Plains, and above-normal temperatures across the eastern third of the CONUS and in the Southern Plains. The precipitation teleconnection map for this time of year shows wetter-than-normal conditions over much of the eastern half of the CONUS and in the Pacific Northwest to Central Rockies. The upper-level circulation anomaly teleconnection for a negative PNA shows below-normal heights over the western half of North America and above-normal heights over the southeastern third of the CONUS. A positive PNA is associated with the opposite patterns.
  • Comparison to Observed: The December 2013 temperature, precipitation, and upper-level circulation anomaly patterns are consistent with a negative PNA for temperature and upper-level circulation in the Southeast and for precipitation for much of the East, but the upper-level circulation anomalies are opposite those expected for a negative PNA over the rest of the continent.
• The Arctic Oscillation (AO) pattern
  • Description: The AO teleconnection pattern relates upper-level circulation over the Arctic to circulation features over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and is most active during the cold season.
  • Status: The daily AO index was positive throughout most of December, and strongly positive at mid-month, averaging positive for the month.
  • Teleconnections (influence on weather): To the extent teleconnections are known, a positive AO this time of year (November-January) is typically associated with wet conditions along the West Coast and dryness in the Northeast and along the Gulf of Mexico coast, above-normal temperatures across most of the country east of the Rockies, and upper-level circulation anomalies which are below normal over much of Alaska and above normal over the eastern CONUS.
  • Comparison to Observed: The December 2013 upper-level circulation anomaly pattern (for North America and the Northern Hemisphere) is similar to that expected with a positive AO, except it is shifted to the east and south, but the temperature anomaly pattern is not consistent with a positive AO. The precipitation anomaly pattern agrees weakly in a few places in the East, but generally not anywhere else.
• The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern
  • Description: The NAO teleconnection pattern relates upper-level circulation over the North Atlantic Ocean to circulation features over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.
  • Status: The daily NAO index was near zero at the beginning and end of the month, but positive in between, and averaged positive for the month.
  • Teleconnections (influence on weather): To the extent teleconnections are known, a positive NAO during this time of year (January on the teleconnection maps) is associated with warmer-than-normal temperatures east of the Rockies (except the Central Plains), is weakly associated with drier-than-normal conditions in parts of the West, and is associated with positive upper-level circulation anomalies over most of the country (except the West Coast).
  • Comparison to Observed: The December 2013 monthly temperature anomaly pattern is consistent only in the Southeast, and there is some agreement during the third week when the NAO was at its strongest. The December 2013 monthly precipitation anomaly pattern is consistent where teleconnections exist. The upper-level circulation anomaly pattern shows little resemblance to a positive NAO.
• The West Pacific (WP) pattern
  • Description: The WP teleconnection pattern is a primary mode of low-frequency variability over the North Pacific and reflects zonal and meridional variations in the location and intensity of the (East Asian) jet stream in the western Pacific.
  • Status: The monthly WP index was strongly negative for the month, and the three-month average WP index was negative.
  • Teleconnections (influence on weather): To the extent teleconnections are known, a negative WP during this time of year (January on the maps) is typically associated with above-normal temperatures in the Southwest, below-normal temperatures in the Midwest to Northeast, drier-than-normal weather from the Mid-Mississippi to Ohio valleys, above-normal circulation anomalies over the western CONUS, and below-normal circulation anomalies over eastern North America.
  • Comparison to Observed: The December 2013 monthly temperature anomaly pattern is consistent in the Upper Midwest and part of the Northeast, but not elsewhere. The December 2013 monthly precipitation anomaly pattern does not agree where teleconnections exist. The upper-level circulation anomaly pattern agrees with a negative WP along the West Coast and Great Lakes, but not elsewhere.
• The Tropical/Northern Hemisphere (TNH) pattern
  • Description: The TNH teleconnection pattern reflects large-scale changes in both the location and eastward extent of the Pacific jet stream, and also in the strength and position of the climatological mean Hudson Bay Low, and is dominant in the winter months. The pattern significantly modulates the flow of marine air into North America, as well as the southward transport of cold Canadian air into the north-central United States.
  • Status: The TNH index was positive during December.
  • Teleconnections (influence on weather): To the extent teleconnections are known, a positive TNH is typically associated with cooler-than-normal temperatures for much of the country, drier-than-normal conditions in the West, and slightly wetter-than-normal conditions in the Tennessee Valley. The upper-level circulation anomalies for a positive TNH are below-normal 500-mb geopotential heights over the eastern two-thirds of Canada and the north central U.S., and above-normal heights over the northeastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico into the western North Atlantic.
  • Observed: The December 2013 monthly temperature and precipitation anomaly patterns are consistent with a positive TNH. The upper-level circulation anomaly pattern is a very good (almost classic) match to a positive TNH.

Upper-level circulation pattern and anomalies averaged for the last three months.
Examination of these circulation indices and their teleconnection patterns, and comparison to observed December 2013 temperature, precipitation, and circulation patterns, suggest that the circulation patterns associated with the TNH atmospheric driver had the greatest influence on December weather, but other drivers shared influence. ENSO was neutral, and thus not a player. The MJO was incoherent or weak for most of the month, but could have exerted some influence on temperature during the last two weeks and precipitation in the East during the third week of the month. The circulation and temperature teleconnections of the PNA and NAO could have some association with the warm anomalies in the Southeast; the PNA and AO have some association with wetness in the East; and the NAO has some association with dryness in the West. The upper-level circulation anomalies for December 2013 have some resemblence to the teleconnections associated with the AO. But the TNH had the best match for the December 2013 temperature, precipitation, and upper-level circulation anomaly patterns. This month illustrates how the anomaly patterns can be strongly represented by one atmospheric driver (TNH in this case) but also have elements of several other drivers (or modes of atmospheric variability).
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[Amir Mohsen]

آنومالی دمای هوا در سطح زمین - دسامبر 2013

 

[heaven1]

درود بر دوستان

جی اف اس تا 192 ساعت آینده